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7th June, 2017
Britain goes to the polling booths tomorrow!
Cornish residents have been sharing their views about the General Election and what’s impacting their vote through the latest What Cornwall Thinks survey. 94% of the 275 panellists responding to the online survey are planning to vote on 8th June (or have already voted by post). The results show that it’s certainly no longer all about Brexit and that TV debates matter!
With a day to go, the subject of the NHS and health services remains top of the agenda, across all age groups and amongst Labour and LibDem voters. Whilst Brexit is in second place overall, it sits only middle of the list (equal 6th place) for the under 35s but top of the list for Conservative voters and fourth from bottom for Labour voters. The under 35s, after the NHS, are more concerned with quality of life, housing and employment.
Q. What are the biggest issues for you influencing how you might vote on 8th June?
|
Total |
Age group |
Voting intention |
|||||
| Under 35s | 35 to 54 | 55 & over | Conservative | Labour |
Liberal Democrat |
||
| NHS and health services |
83% |
89% | 85% | 76% | 52% | 97% |
91% |
| Brexit / European Union |
53% |
37% | 51% | 64% | 82% | 24% |
58% |
| Economy |
49% |
37% | 52% | 52% | 63% | 37% |
49% |
| Care services |
42% |
39% | 38% | 48% | 20% | 49% |
49% |
| Quality of life |
36% |
43% | 41% | 27% | 25% | 45% |
39% |
| Environment |
33% |
30% | 36% | 29% | 14% | 31% |
48% |
| Policing / crime |
30% |
30% | 27% | 34% | 29% | 37% |
25% |
| Housing |
28% |
41% |
26% | 24% | 7% | 37% |
38% |
| Employment |
25% |
41% | 28% | 14% | 18% | 39% |
19% |
| Immigration |
21% |
24% | 12% | 30% | 52% | 7% |
11% |
| Transport & infrastructure |
20% |
15% | 20% | 23% | 7% | 24% |
24% |
| Defence |
13% |
11% | 9% | 19% | 34% | 5% |
8% |
| Devolution |
5% |
4% | 5% | 6% | 4% | 7% |
5% |
WCT does not proclaim the survey sample to be representative of the Cornish resident population and the survey has not been designed to be a formal election opinion poll. However, data are indicative of voter behaviour and address keys topics emerging from the General Election 2017 campaign.
The LibDems are clearly going to increase their poll and make an impact on this election, with 31% of WCT respondents overall having decided to give them their vote. 29% overall intend to vote Labour, with 46% of the under 35s compared to just 17% of those aged 55+. The Conservative vote, 22% overall, is more likely to come from older voters than younger voters.
The tactical vote is set to play a significant role in the 2017 General Election, with 28% overall saying their vote will be tactical and most prominently among those intending to vote LibDem (56% of the LibDem vote could be tactical). Interestingly, over a third of the ‘undecided’ voters suggest that they will vote tactically, suggesting that many of the these may well lend their vote to the LibDems.
Q. Have you decided which party / candidate you will be voting for?
| Total | Under 35s | 35 to 54 | 55 & over | |
| Conservative | 22% | 13% | 16% | 33% |
| Labour | 29% | 46% | 33% | 17% |
| Liberal Democrat | 31% | 26% | 33% | 30% |
| UKIP | 0% | 2% | 0% | 0% |
| Green Party | 0% | 0% | 0% | 1% |
| Undecided | 11% | 9% | 16% | 6% |
| Prefer not to say | 7% | 4% | 3% | 13% |
Q. Do you consider your vote will be tactical?
| Total | Voting Conservative | Voting Labour | Voting Liberal Democrat | Undecided | |
| Yes | 28% | 11% | 8% | 53% | 36% |
| No | 62% | 89% | 81% | 43% | 32% |
| Don’t know / prefer not to say | 10% | 0% | 10% | 4% | 32% |
Ever since Prime Minister Theresa May announced the snap General Election, the narrative has majored around leadership and personalities. The BBC’s live TV debate was a major talking point, especially when Theresa May declared she would not appear and sent Home Secretary, Amber Rudd, instead.
42% of respondents watched the TV debate and overall 40% found the event useful in helping them to make up their minds. 54% of under 35s versus 29% of the 55 & overs found the debate useful. Whilst the results of this survey cannot determine cause and effect, there does appear to be a correlation between the younger persons’ voting intention (strong for Labour) and the performance of Jeremy Corbyn, who was rated the best performing candidate on the debating panel.
Q. How useful was the debate towards helping you decide how you might vote on June 8th?
| Total | Under 35s | 35 to 54 | 55 & over | |
| Very / fairly useful | 40% | 54% | 43% | 29% |
| Neither / nor… | 26% | 17% | 26% | 31% |
| Not at all / not very useful | 34% | 29% | 32% | 41% |
| Watched the debate | 42% | 51% | 38% | 43% |
Q. Who performed well in the debate?
| Total | Under 35s | 35 to 54 | 55 & over | |
| Tim Farron (Liberal Democrat) | 34% | 36% | 40% | 28% |
| Jeremy Corbyn (Labour) | 65% | 76% | 67% | 56% |
| Caroline Lucas (Green) | 50% | 36% | 52% | 56% |
| Leanne Wood (Plaid Cymru) | 23% | 20% | 21% | 28% |
| Amber Rudd (Conservative) | 12% | 4% | 8% | 21% |
| Paul Nuttall (UKIP) | 3% | 8% | 0% | 2% |
| Angus Robertson (SNP) | 26% | 20% | 21% | 35% |
| All about the same | 9% | 4% | 15% | 7% |
| Don’t know | 3% | 4% | 0% | 5% |
Finally, extending the right to vote to 16 & 17 year olds remains a divisive issue – overall 43% think 16/17 year olds should have the vote and 47% say no. And whilst it’s all too late for this election, the younger vote could have an interesting impact on the outcome of future elections, if a greater number of younger people can be sufficiently engaged to vote and especially if the voting age is lowered to 16. Unsurprisingly, in our survey the younger the respondent then the more likely they are to want the voting age lowered (67% said yes versus just 28% of those aged 55 and over). Those intending to vote Conservative are far less likely to want to see the voting age lowered than Labour and LibDem voters.
Q. Should the right to vote in UK general elections be extended to 16 and 17 year olds?
| Total | Age group | Voting intention | |||||
| Under 35s | 35 to 54 | 55 & over | Conservative | Labour | Liberal Democrat | ||
| Yes | 43% | 67% | 46% | 28% | 11% | 61% | 56% |
| No | 47% | 29% | 41% | 63% | 84% | 31% | 33% |
| Don’t know | 10% | 4% | 13% | 9% | 5% | 8% | 11% |
What Cornwall Thinks is a panel of Cornish residents who share their views on topical subjects. Agree or disagree with the results above?!